Match context

The upcoming match between Atyrau and FC Astana is scheduled for 30.08.2026 15:00 in Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Atyrau are in position 13 with 19 points after 19 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 10 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 14 scored and 18 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLLL. FC Astana are in position 3 with 35 points after 19 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 31 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWD.

Recent results

Atyrau recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDDLLLLWDD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. FC Astana recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWWLWWWDL. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Atyrau recorded 1 wins, there were 3 draws, and FC Astana recorded 6 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or FC Astana (X2) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 17.94%, 24.92% and 57.14%. The model momentum difference is 39.20 points in favour of FC Astana. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.92%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Atyrau 0 / FC Astana 0 supports Atyrau by an average 3.11 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.87). Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Atyrau at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 71.4%, 14.3% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 13 of 21 completed matches (61.9% coverage). The discipline profile for FC Astana away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 2.83 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 16.7% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 21 completed matches (47.6% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Atyrau and FC Astana ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Atyrau at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Atyrau received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 71.4% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FC Astana away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 2.83 total cards per match. In this game, FC Astana received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.83 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 50%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Atyrau at 0. The stored market movement was 3.11 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.87. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.