Match context

The upcoming match between Kaspiy and Kairat Almaty is scheduled for 05.09.2026 12:00 in Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Kaspiy are in position 10 with 26 points after 20 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDLW. Kairat Almaty are in position 2 with 51 points after 20 matches. The season record is 13 wins, 6 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 39 scored and 14 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWW.

Recent results

Kaspiy recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDLWDWWWL. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Kairat Almaty recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWLLWWLW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Kaspiy recorded 1 wins, there were 3 draws, and Kairat Almaty recorded 6 wins. The average total was 3.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Kairat Almaty to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 14.95%, 21.88% and 63.17%. The model momentum difference is 48.22 points in favour of Kairat Almaty. The input data quality score is 93/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.30%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Kaspiy 0 / Kairat Almaty 0 supports Kaspiy by an average 5.84 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 80/100, 79.93% bucket win rate across 543 observations). Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Kaspiy at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.78 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.78 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 77.8%, 55.6%, 33.3% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 23 completed matches (65.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Kairat Almaty away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.88 yellow cards, 0.38 red cards and 3.25 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 62.5%, 62.5%, 37.5% and 25.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 37.5%. Season card data is available for 13 of 21 completed matches (61.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Kaspiy and Kairat Almaty ended 0-3. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.2 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kaspiy at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.78 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.78 total cards per match. In this game, Kaspiy received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.78 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 55.6% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kairat Almaty away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.88 yellow cards, 0.38 red cards and 3.25 total cards per match. In this game, Kairat Almaty received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.25 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 62.5% of matches, 5+ in 25%, and a red card in 37.5%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Kaspiy at 0. The stored market movement was 5.84 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 0-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.