Match context

The upcoming match between Yelimay Semey and Zhetysu is scheduled for 12.09.2026 13:00 in Premier League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Yelimay Semey are in position 6 with 32 points after 19 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 26 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDWD. Zhetysu are in position 13 with 22 points after 20 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 30 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLD.

Recent results

Yelimay Semey recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDWDDLDDW. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Zhetysu recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLDLLLLW. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Yelimay Semey recorded 3 wins, there were 1 draws, and Zhetysu recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%; Under 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Yelimay Semey or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.87%, 23.03% and 17.11%. The model momentum difference is 42.76 points in favour of Yelimay Semey. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.99%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Yelimay Semey -0.75 / Zhetysu +0.75 supports Yelimay Semey by an average 4.12 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 11.80, score 85/100, 85.25% group success rate across 122 observations). Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Yelimay Semey at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 83.3%, 66.7%, 33.3% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 14 of 23 completed matches (60.9% coverage). The discipline profile for Zhetysu away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 3.14 yellow cards, 0.43 red cards and 3.57 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, 42.9% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 42.9%. Season card data is available for 14 of 24 completed matches (58.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Yelimay Semey and Zhetysu ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Yelimay Semey at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.67 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Yelimay Semey received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 33.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Zhetysu away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 3.14 yellow cards, 0.43 red cards and 3.57 total cards per match. In this game, Zhetysu received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 3.57 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 100% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 42.9%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Yelimay Semey at -0.75. The stored market movement was 4.12 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a half win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 11.8. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.