Match context

The upcoming match between Nantong Zhiyun and Heilongjiang Lava Spring is scheduled for 01.08.2026 11:30 in League One. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Nantong Zhiyun are in position 3 with 26 points after 15 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 11 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLWD. Heilongjiang Lava Spring are in position 10 with 17 points after 16 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 29 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLDL.

Recent results

Nantong Zhiyun recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDLWDDLWL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Heilongjiang Lava Spring recorded 0 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDLDLDDLL. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 2.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Nantong Zhiyun recorded 3 wins, there were 5 draws, and Heilongjiang Lava Spring recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Nantong Zhiyun or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 56.79%, 26.22% and 16.98%. The model momentum difference is 39.81 points in favour of Nantong Zhiyun. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.85%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Nantong Zhiyun -0.5 / Heilongjiang Lava Spring +0.5 supports Nantong Zhiyun by an average 2.61 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 79/100, 79.09% bucket win rate across 220 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Nantong Zhiyun and Heilongjiang Lava Spring ended 5-1. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.9 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Nantong Zhiyun at -0.5. The stored market movement was 2.61 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 5-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.