Match context

The upcoming match between Guangxi Hengchen and Meizhou Kejia is scheduled for 15.08.2026 11:30 in League One. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Guangxi Hengchen are in position 4 with 29 points after 16 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 30 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDWW. Meizhou Kejia are in position 15 with 11 points after 17 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 32 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLWL.

Recent results

Guangxi Hengchen recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDWWWLDDD. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Meizhou Kejia recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWLLWDDW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Guangxi Hengchen recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and Meizhou Kejia recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Guangxi Hengchen to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 65.08%, 19.96% and 14.97%. The model momentum difference is 50.11 points in favour of Guangxi Hengchen. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.38 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.20%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Guangxi Hengchen -0.25 / Meizhou Kejia +0.25 supports Meizhou Kejia by an average 2.03 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 9 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Guangxi Hengchen at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 42.9%, 42.9%, 14.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 13 of 17 completed matches (76.5% coverage). The discipline profile for Meizhou Kejia away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 66.7%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 18 completed matches (55.6% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Guangxi Hengchen and Meizhou Kejia ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Guangxi Hengchen at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Guangxi Hengchen received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Meizhou Kejia away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Meizhou Kejia received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Meizhou Kejia at +0.25. The stored market movement was 2.03 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 5 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.