Match context

The upcoming match between Suzhou Dongwu and Dongguan United is scheduled for 12.09.2026 11:00 in League One. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Suzhou Dongwu are in position 14 with 16 points after 17 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 12 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWWD. Dongguan United are in position 16 with 11 points after 17 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 32 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLDL.

Recent results

Suzhou Dongwu recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDDWWDDLD. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Dongguan United recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLLDLLLL. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Suzhou Dongwu recorded 2 wins, there were 3 draws, and Dongguan United recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1.86 goals per match. Both teams scored in 42.9% of those matches, while 28.6% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Suzhou Dongwu or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 56.98%, 24.18% and 18.84%. The model momentum difference is 38.15 points in favour of Suzhou Dongwu. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.47%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Suzhou Dongwu -0.75 / Dongguan United +0.75 supports Suzhou Dongwu by an average 2.89 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Suzhou Dongwu at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 1.89 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.89 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 55.6%, 22.2%, 11.1% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 18 of 22 completed matches (81.8% coverage). The discipline profile for Dongguan United away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 37.5%, 12.5% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 22 completed matches (86.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Suzhou Dongwu and Dongguan United ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.86 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 71.4%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Suzhou Dongwu at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 1.89 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.89 total cards per match. In this game, Suzhou Dongwu received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.89 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 22.2% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Dongguan United away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Dongguan United received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 37.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Suzhou Dongwu at -0.75. The stored market movement was 2.89 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a half win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.