Match context

The upcoming match between England and Croatia is scheduled for 12.11.2026 19:45 in UEFA Nations League. The listed venue is The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

England recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLWLWWWW. The averages are 3 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Croatia recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWLWWLWL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, England recorded 4 wins, there were 1 draws, and Croatia recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as England to win with 78% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 77.81%, 13.56% and 8.63%. The model momentum difference is 69.18 points in favour of England. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.07%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair England -0.5 / Croatia +0.5 supports England by an average 2.76 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 21, score 83/100, 83.18% group success rate across 1683 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for England at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Croatia away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between England and Croatia ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.33 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for England at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, England received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Croatia away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Croatia received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported England at -0.5. The stored market movement was 2.76 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.