Match context

The upcoming match between Riga Mariners and Tukums II is scheduled for 09.08.2026 14:00 in 1. Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Riga Mariners are in position 4 with 32 points after 15 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 30 scored and 13 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLWW. Tukums II are in position 10 with 12 points after 15 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 41 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWLL.

Recent results

Riga Mariners recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLDWWWWWD. The averages are 3 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Tukums II recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWLLLLDDL. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 2.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Riga Mariners recorded 3 wins, there were 0 draws, and Tukums II recorded 0 wins. The average total was 4 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Riga Mariners to win with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 84.24%, 10.70% and 5.05%. The model momentum difference is 79.19 points in favour of Riga Mariners. The input data quality score is 88/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.08 with 1xBet. The stored estimated EV is -9.02%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

What happened in the match

The match between Riga Mariners and Tukums II ended 4-2. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 4 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.