Match context

The upcoming match between JDFS Alberts and Smiltene is scheduled for 05.09.2026 12:00 in 1. Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
JDFS Alberts are in position 5 with 34 points after 15 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 30 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDD. Smiltene are in position 13 with 10 points after 15 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 18 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLWL.

Recent results

JDFS Alberts recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDDWLWLD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Smiltene recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWLWLLLL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 3.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, JDFS Alberts recorded 9 wins, there were 0 draws, and Smiltene recorded 1 wins. The average total was 4.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as JDFS Alberts to win with 78% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 77.87%, 13.02% and 9.11%. The model momentum difference is 68.76 points in favour of JDFS Alberts. The input data quality score is 93/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.89%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 26, score 85/100, 85.26% group success rate across 468 observations). Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.78).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Smiltene away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 18 completed matches (5.6% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between JDFS Alberts and Smiltene ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.3 goals, while this match produced 5. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Smiltene away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 1 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Smiltene received 0 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 1 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 100%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 26. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.78. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 0 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.