Match context

The upcoming match between Smiltene and Riga Mariners is scheduled for 12.09.2026 11:00 in 1. Liga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Smiltene are in position 13 with 10 points after 15 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 18 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLWL. Riga Mariners are in position 4 with 41 points after 15 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 30 scored and 13 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWD.

Recent results

Smiltene recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLWLWLLL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 3.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Riga Mariners recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWDLDWW. The averages are 2.90 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Smiltene recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Riga Mariners recorded 3 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 3.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Riga Mariners to win with 77% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 10.22%, 13.14% and 76.64%. The model momentum difference is 66.42 points in favour of Riga Mariners. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.20 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.03%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Riga Mariners away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 1 of 19 completed matches (5.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Smiltene and Riga Mariners ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.