Match context

The upcoming match between Khimik Dzerzhinsk and Orenburg II is scheduled for 16.08.2026 15:00 in Second League - Group 4. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Khimik Dzerzhinsk are in position 1 with 50 points after 19 matches. The season record is 16 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 52 scored and 13 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDW. Orenburg II are in position 8 with 20 points after 19 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 30 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDDLL.

Recent results

Khimik Dzerzhinsk recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWWDWWWW. The averages are 2.90 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Orenburg II recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDDLLDLLL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Khimik Dzerzhinsk recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Orenburg II recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%; Over 1.5 goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Khimik Dzerzhinsk to win with 73% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 72.61%, 19.95% and 7.44%. The model momentum difference is 65.17 points in favour of Khimik Dzerzhinsk. The input data quality score is 86/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with 1xBet. The stored estimated EV is -9.24%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Khimik Dzerzhinsk 0 / Orenburg II 0 supports Khimik Dzerzhinsk by an average 5.53 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.23, score 82/100, 82.29% bucket win rate across 96 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Khimik Dzerzhinsk at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 2 of 20 completed matches (10.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Khimik Dzerzhinsk and Orenburg II ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Khimik Dzerzhinsk at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 0 yellow cards, 1 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, Khimik Dzerzhinsk received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 100%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Khimik Dzerzhinsk at 0. The stored market movement was 5.53 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.23. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.