Match context

The upcoming match between HPS and Union Plaani is scheduled for 15.08.2026 14:00 in Kakkonen - Lohko A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
HPS are in position 5 with 25 points after 16 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 38 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDLWL. Union Plaani are in position 10 with 8 points after 16 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 2 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 42 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLL.

Recent results

HPS recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLWLWWLWD. The averages are 2.50 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Union Plaani recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLWLLLL. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 1 head-to-head matches, HPS recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and Union Plaani recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as HPS to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 66.73%, 18.15% and 15.12%. The model momentum difference is 51.60 points in favour of HPS. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.25%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair HPS 0 / Union Plaani 0 supports HPS by an average 2.17 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even - First Half — Even (odds 1.82). Corners Over Under — Over 8.5 (odds 1.24, score 90/100, 90.48% bucket win rate across 21 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for HPS at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 3.40 yellow cards, 0.40 red cards and 3.80 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 60.0%, 60.0% and 40.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 40.0%. Season card data is available for 11 of 16 completed matches (68.8% coverage). The discipline profile for Union Plaani away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 1.75 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 25.0%, 25.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 9 of 15 completed matches (60.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between HPS and Union Plaani ended 0-3. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for HPS at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 3.4 yellow cards, 0.4 red cards and 3.8 total cards per match. In this game, HPS received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 1.2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 60% of matches, 5+ in 40%, and a red card in 40%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Union Plaani away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 1.75 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. In this game, Union Plaani received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.25 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported HPS at 0. The stored market movement was 2.17 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Even HT goals at odds of 1.82. The actual market outcome was Even HT goals. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 4 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.