Match context

The upcoming match between Selfoss and KFG is scheduled for 12.09.2026 14:00 in 2. Deild. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Selfoss are in position 2 with 42 points after 15 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 34 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDW. KFG are in position 10 with 22 points after 15 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 20 scored and 45 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWL.

Recent results

Selfoss recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDWLWWWD. The averages are 2.90 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. KFG recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWLLLLLL. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 2.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Selfoss recorded 4 wins, there were 1 draws, and KFG recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 3.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Selfoss to win with 68% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.88%, 16.42% and 15.70%. The model momentum difference is 52.18 points in favour of Selfoss. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.72%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Selfoss 0 / KFG 0 supports Selfoss by an average 5.97 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 55, score 92/100, 91.67% group success rate across 36 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for KFG away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 0.50 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 20 completed matches (15.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Selfoss and KFG ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.8 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for KFG away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 0.5 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 1 total cards per match. In this game, KFG received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Selfoss at 0. The stored market movement was 5.97 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 55. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.