Match context

The upcoming match between Palmeiras and Fortaleza EC is scheduled for 02.08.2026 19:00 in Copa Do Brasil. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Palmeiras recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWWWLDWD. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Fortaleza EC recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWLWWDLWL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Fortaleza EC recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Palmeiras to win with 75% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 74.83%, 16.53% and 8.64%. The model momentum difference is 66.19 points in favour of Palmeiras. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.27 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.96%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Palmeiras 0 / Fortaleza EC 0 supports Fortaleza EC by an average 4.64 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 10 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 79/100, 78.89% bucket win rate across 270 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Palmeiras and Fortaleza EC ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.1 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Fortaleza EC at 0. The stored market movement was 4.64 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.