Match context

The upcoming match between Referencia U20 and Palmeiras U20 is scheduled for 21.08.2026 18:00 in Paulista - U20. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Referencia U20 are in position 15 with 0 points after 9 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is LL. Palmeiras U20 are in position 6 with 3 points after 8 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 14 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is W.

Recent results

Referencia U20 recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLWLLLDL. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Palmeiras U20 recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWLDDWD. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, Referencia U20 recorded 0 wins, there were 0 draws, and Palmeiras U20 recorded 4 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 25% of those matches, while 75% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Palmeiras U20 to win with 75% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 9.46%, 15.63% and 74.91%. The model momentum difference is 65.44 points in favour of Palmeiras U20. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.20 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.11%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Palmeiras U20 away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 0.00 yellow cards, 1.00 red cards and 1.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 100.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 11 completed matches (27.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Referencia U20 and Palmeiras U20 ended 0-2. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.