Match context

The upcoming match between Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys is scheduled for 23.08.2026 15:45 in A Lyga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Suduva Marijampole are in position 3 with 36 points after 22 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 34 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDWW. Panevėžys are in position 7 with 23 points after 22 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLDL.

Recent results

Suduva Marijampole recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDWWWDWW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Panevėžys recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDDDLDLLW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Suduva Marijampole recorded 3 wins, there were 4 draws, and Panevėžys recorded 3 wins. The average total was 1.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Suduva Marijampole or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.13%, 25.13% and 15.73%. The model momentum difference is 43.40 points in favour of Suduva Marijampole. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.10 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.31%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Suduva Marijampole -0.25 / Panevėžys +0.25 supports Panevėžys by an average 3.44 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Suduva Marijampole at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 25.0%, 25.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 12 of 24 completed matches (50.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Panevėžys away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 83.3%, 16.7%, 16.7% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 13 of 24 completed matches (54.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Suduva Marijampole and Panevėžys ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.7 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Suduva Marijampole at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.5 total cards per match. In this game, Suduva Marijampole received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Panevėžys away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, Panevėžys received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 16.7% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 33.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Panevėžys at +0.25. The stored market movement was 3.44 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.