Match context

The upcoming match between Panevėžys and FK Zalgiris Vilnius is scheduled for 30.08.2026 16:00 in A Lyga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Panevėžys are in position 8 with 23 points after 22 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWDL. FK Zalgiris Vilnius are in position 4 with 37 points after 23 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 36 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWW.

Recent results

Panevėžys recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWDDDLDLL. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. FK Zalgiris Vilnius recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLWWLWWW. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Panevėžys recorded 4 wins, there were 1 draws, and FK Zalgiris Vilnius recorded 5 wins. The average total was 3.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.11; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 96%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius (X2) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.88%, 21.35% and 59.78%. The model momentum difference is 40.90 points in favour of FK Zalgiris Vilnius. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.14%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Panevėžys 0 / FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0 supports FK Zalgiris Vilnius by an average 3.33 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Panevėžys at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.14 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 57.1%, 42.9%, 14.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 25 completed matches (56.0% coverage). The discipline profile for FK Zalgiris Vilnius away from home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.20 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 40.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 11 of 25 completed matches (44.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Panevėžys and FK Zalgiris Vilnius ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.8 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Panevėžys at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.14 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. In this game, Panevėžys received 3 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.86 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FK Zalgiris Vilnius away from home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2.2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, FK Zalgiris Vilnius received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 0. The stored market movement was 3.33 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.