Match context

The upcoming match between Šiauliai and Suduva Marijampole is scheduled for 30.08.2026 14:00 in A Lyga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Šiauliai are in position 9 with 16 points after 24 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 8 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 22 scored and 47 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLL. Suduva Marijampole are in position 1 with 42 points after 22 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 34 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWD.

Recent results

Šiauliai recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLLLLLWL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 2.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Suduva Marijampole recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWDWWWDW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 0.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Šiauliai recorded 3 wins, there were 6 draws, and Suduva Marijampole recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Suduva Marijampole to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 17.07%, 22.40% and 60.54%. The model momentum difference is 43.47 points in favour of Suduva Marijampole. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.41%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Šiauliai 0 / Suduva Marijampole 0 supports Suduva Marijampole by an average 4.57 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 80/100, 79.56% bucket win rate across 548 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Šiauliai at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 3.60 yellow cards, 0.20 red cards and 3.80 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 80.0%, 20.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 27 completed matches (25.9% coverage). The discipline profile for Suduva Marijampole away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.63 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.63 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 12.5%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 12 of 25 completed matches (48.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Šiauliai and Suduva Marijampole ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Šiauliai at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 3.6 yellow cards, 0.2 red cards and 3.8 total cards per match. In this game, Šiauliai received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.8 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 80% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 20%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Suduva Marijampole away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.63 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.63 total cards per match. In this game, Suduva Marijampole received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.63 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 12.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Suduva Marijampole at 0. The stored market movement was 4.57 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.