Match context

The upcoming match between Kauno Žalgiris and Džiugas Telšiai is scheduled for 06.09.2026 15:45 in A Lyga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Kauno Žalgiris are in position 2 with 39 points after 22 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 44 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWWW. Džiugas Telšiai are in position 5 with 38 points after 24 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 24 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLWD.

Recent results

Kauno Žalgiris recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLDLWLWD. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Džiugas Telšiai recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLWDLWDDL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Kauno Žalgiris recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and Džiugas Telšiai recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Kauno Žalgiris to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 63.05%, 20.68% and 16.28%. The model momentum difference is 46.77 points in favour of Kauno Žalgiris. The input data quality score is 88/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.47%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Kauno Žalgiris -0.5 / Džiugas Telšiai +0.5 supports Džiugas Telšiai by an average 1.63 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Kauno Žalgiris at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 33.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 12 of 25 completed matches (48.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Džiugas Telšiai away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 66.7%, 33.3% and 33.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 16 of 28 completed matches (57.1% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Kauno Žalgiris and Džiugas Telšiai ended 5-0. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kauno Žalgiris at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Kauno Žalgiris received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 33.3%, and a red card in 33.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Džiugas Telšiai away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.67 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Džiugas Telšiai received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 33.3%, and a red card in 33.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Džiugas Telšiai at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.63 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 5-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.