Match context

The upcoming match between FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Šiauliai is scheduled for 06.09.2026 16:00 in A Lyga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
FK Zalgiris Vilnius are in position 6 with 37 points after 23 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 36 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLWW. Šiauliai are in position 9 with 16 points after 24 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 8 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 22 scored and 47 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLL.

Recent results

FK Zalgiris Vilnius recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLLWWLWW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Šiauliai recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 9 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLWLLLLLL. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, FK Zalgiris Vilnius recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and Šiauliai recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win with 73% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 73.10%, 16.99% and 9.91%. The model momentum difference is 63.19 points in favour of FK Zalgiris Vilnius. The input data quality score is 84/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.22 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.81%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0 / Šiauliai 0 supports FK Zalgiris Vilnius by an average 1.27 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 3.17 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 3.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 83.3%, 83.3%, 50.0% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 12 of 26 completed matches (46.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Šiauliai away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 8 of 28 completed matches (28.6% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Šiauliai ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 3.17 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 3.33 total cards per match. In this game, FK Zalgiris Vilnius received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 83.3% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 16.7%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Šiauliai away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Šiauliai received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 0. The stored market movement was 1.27 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 1 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.