Match context

The upcoming match between Panevėžys and Kauno Žalgiris is scheduled for 13.09.2026 11:30 in A Lyga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Panevėžys are in position 7 with 32 points after 27 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 29 scored and 42 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWLL. Kauno Žalgiris are in position 2 with 45 points after 25 matches. The season record is 12 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 51 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDDW.

Recent results

Panevėžys recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWLLWDDDL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Kauno Žalgiris recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDWLDLWL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Panevėžys recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and Kauno Žalgiris recorded 7 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 30%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.88; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 93%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Kauno Žalgiris (X2) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.96%, 23.69% and 57.35%. The model momentum difference is 38.39 points in favour of Kauno Žalgiris. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.23%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Panevėžys at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.25 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.38 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 62.5%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 16 of 28 completed matches (57.1% coverage). The discipline profile for Kauno Žalgiris away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 50.0%, 16.7% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 14 of 27 completed matches (51.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Panevėžys and Kauno Žalgiris ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Panevėžys at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.25 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.38 total cards per match. In this game, Panevėžys received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.38 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 12.5%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kauno Žalgiris away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Kauno Žalgiris received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 16.7%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.