Match context

The upcoming match between Palmeiras and Cerro Porteno is scheduled for 12.08.2026 22:00 in CONMEBOL Libertadores. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Palmeiras are in position 2 with 11 points. The stored form sequence is WLWDW. Cerro Porteno are in position 1 with 13 points. The stored form sequence is WWWDW.

Recent results

Palmeiras recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWWLWWWWL. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Cerro Porteno recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLWWWLDW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras recorded 6 wins, there were 1 draws, and Cerro Porteno recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 25% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.30; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 98%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Palmeiras to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 70.30%, 18.70% and 11.00%. The model momentum difference is 59.30 points in favour of Palmeiras. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.50%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Palmeiras 0 / Cerro Porteno 0 supports Palmeiras by an average 1.19 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 11, score 77/100, 76.68% group success rate across 2839 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Palmeiras and Cerro Porteno ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Palmeiras at 0. The stored market movement was 1.19 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 11. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.