Match context

The upcoming match between Cerro Porteno and Palmeiras is scheduled for 19.08.2026 22:00 in CONMEBOL Libertadores. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Cerro Porteno are in position 1 with 13 points after 6 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDW. Palmeiras are in position 2 with 11 points after 6 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 10 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWDW.

Recent results

Cerro Porteno recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLWLLWWWL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Palmeiras recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDDLWWLWWW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Cerro Porteno recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and Palmeiras recorded 6 wins. The average total was 2.44 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 44.4% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.70; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 92%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Palmeiras (X2) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 19.86%, 28.59% and 51.55%. The model momentum difference is 31.69 points in favour of Palmeiras. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.24%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Cerro Porteno +0.25 / Palmeiras -0.25 supports Cerro Porteno by an average 1.13 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 36 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Cerro Porteno at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 7 completed matches (85.7% coverage). The discipline profile for Palmeiras away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.33 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 7 completed matches (85.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Cerro Porteno and Palmeiras ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.44 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Cerro Porteno at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Cerro Porteno received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Palmeiras away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.33 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. In this game, Palmeiras received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.67 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Cerro Porteno at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.13 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.