Match context

The upcoming match between Philippines and Thailand is scheduled for 04.08.2026 13:00 in ASEAN Championship. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Philippines recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWDWWWDW. The averages are 3.10 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Thailand recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDDWWWWWL. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Philippines recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and Thailand recorded 6 wins. The average total was 2.67 goals per match. Both teams scored in 55.6% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Thailand to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 12.79%, 19.90% and 67.31%. The model momentum difference is 54.53 points in favour of Thailand. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.47%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Philippines +0.25 / Thailand -0.25 supports Thailand by an average 5.18 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.82). At least one goal in the match (quota 12.80, score 80/100, 80.29% group success rate across 137 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Philippines and Thailand ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.67 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Thailand at -0.25. The stored market movement was 5.18 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.82. The actual market outcome was BTTS No. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 12.8. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 10 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.