Match context

The upcoming match between HNK Hajduk Split and Istra 1961 is scheduled for 09.08.2026 19:00 in HNL. The listed venue is Stadion Poljud, Split. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
HNK Hajduk Split are in position 7 with 0 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is L. Istra 1961 are in position 6 with 0 points after 1 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is L.

Recent results

HNK Hajduk Split recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWLWWWWW. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Istra 1961 recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWLDWWLLL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, HNK Hajduk Split recorded 4 wins, there were 4 draws, and Istra 1961 recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.70; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as HNK Hajduk Split to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 64.21%, 21.40% and 14.38%. The model momentum difference is 49.83 points in favour of HNK Hajduk Split. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.10%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair HNK Hajduk Split -0.5 / Istra 1961 +0.5 supports Istra 1961 by an average 1.49 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 76/100, 76.44% bucket win rate across 382 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between HNK Hajduk Split and Istra 1961 ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Istra 1961 at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.49 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.