Match context

The upcoming match between Alianza Lima and UTC is scheduled for 16.08.2026 00:30 in Primera División. The listed venue is Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Alianza Lima are in position 2 with 8 points after 20 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 37 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWDWD. UTC are in position 17 with 2 points after 20 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDLD.

Recent results

Alianza Lima recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDWLLDDWW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. UTC recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDLWWDDDL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima recorded 8 wins, there were 2 draws, and UTC recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 10% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Alianza Lima to win with 74% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 73.67%, 17.82% and 8.51%. The model momentum difference is 65.17 points in favour of Alianza Lima. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.27 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.44%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Alianza Lima 0 / UTC 0 supports UTC by an average 2.06 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 77/100, 77.47% bucket win rate across 435 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Alianza Lima at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 87.5%, 75.0%, 25.0%, 12.5% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 18 of 18 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for UTC away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 3.09 yellow cards, 0.27 red cards and 3.36 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 54.5%, 27.3% and 27.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 27.3%. Season card data is available for 21 of 21 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Alianza Lima and UTC ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.3 goals, while this match produced 1. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported UTC at 0. The stored market movement was 2.06 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Under 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.