Match context

The upcoming match between Alianza Lima and Deportivo Garcilaso is scheduled for 30.08.2026 00:30 in Primera División. The listed venue is Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Alianza Lima are in position 3 with 12 points after 20 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 37 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWDWD. Deportivo Garcilaso are in position 1 with 13 points after 20 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWWW.

Recent results

Alianza Lima recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDWDWLLDD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Deportivo Garcilaso recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWWLDWLD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Alianza Lima recorded 5 wins, there were 1 draws, and Deportivo Garcilaso recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.43 goals per match. Both teams scored in 71.4% of those matches, while 57.1% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Alianza Lima to win with 72% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 72.32%, 19.34% and 8.35%. The model momentum difference is 63.97 points in favour of Alianza Lima. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.27 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.16%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Alianza Lima 0 / Deportivo Garcilaso 0 supports Alianza Lima by an average 1.08 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Alianza Lima at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 1.89 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.89 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 88.9%, 66.7%, 22.2%, 11.1% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 20 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Deportivo Garcilaso away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.40 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.40 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 90.0%, 60.0%, 40.0%, 30.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 21 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Alianza Lima and Deportivo Garcilaso ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.43 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 71.4%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Alianza Lima at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 1.89 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.89 total cards per match. In this game, Alianza Lima received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.11 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 22.2% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Deportivo Garcilaso away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.4 total cards per match. In this game, Deportivo Garcilaso received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.4 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Alianza Lima at 0. The stored market movement was 1.08 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.