Match context

The upcoming match between Deportivo Garcilaso and Atletico Grau is scheduled for 06.09.2026 18:30 in Primera División. The listed venue is Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Deportivo Garcilaso are in position 2 with 16 points after 20 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDWW. Atletico Grau are in position 6 with 13 points after 20 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 15 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWDL.

Recent results

Deportivo Garcilaso recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWWWLDWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Atletico Grau recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWDLLWDD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Garcilaso recorded 2 wins, there were 5 draws, and Atletico Grau recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1.71 goals per match. Both teams scored in 42.9% of those matches, while 14.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 1.5 goals — 40%; Both teams to score — 20%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.80; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 93%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Deportivo Garcilaso to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.65%, 25.08% and 14.28%. The model momentum difference is 46.37 points in favour of Deportivo Garcilaso. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.53 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.21%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Deportivo Garcilaso -0.75 / Atletico Grau +0.75 supports Deportivo Garcilaso by an average 7.90 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Deportivo Garcilaso at home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.09 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.09 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 90.9%, 72.7%, 27.3%, 9.1% and 9.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 22 of 22 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Atletico Grau away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 1.73 yellow cards, 0.18 red cards and 1.91 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 90.9%, 54.5%, 36.4%, 9.1% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 18.2%. Season card data is available for 23 of 23 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Deportivo Garcilaso and Atletico Grau ended 4-2. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 15 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.71 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 85.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.8 total corners. The match recorded 15 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 93%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Deportivo Garcilaso at home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 2.09 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.09 total cards per match. In this game, Deportivo Garcilaso received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.09 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 27.3% of matches, 5+ in 9.1%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Atletico Grau away from home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 1.73 yellow cards, 0.18 red cards and 1.91 total cards per match. In this game, Atletico Grau received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 3.09 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 36.4% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 18.2%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Deportivo Garcilaso at -0.75. The stored market movement was 7.9 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 4-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.