Match context

The upcoming match between FBC Melgar and ADT is scheduled for 06.09.2026 23:30 in Primera División. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
FBC Melgar are in position 10 with 11 points after 20 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 34 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDWLD. ADT are in position 17 with 2 points after 20 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDDL.

Recent results

FBC Melgar recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWLDWWDDL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. ADT recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLDDLLLWL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, FBC Melgar recorded 4 wins, there were 5 draws, and ADT recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.78 goals per match. Both teams scored in 55.6% of those matches, while 55.6% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.30; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 98%; over 9.5 corners — 87%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FBC Melgar to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 70.30%, 18.28% and 11.42%. The model momentum difference is 58.88 points in favour of FBC Melgar. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.61%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair FBC Melgar +0.25 / ADT -0.25 supports FBC Melgar by an average 1.75 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 80/100, 80.03% bucket win rate across 606 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for FBC Melgar at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.88 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.13 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 37.5%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 20 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for ADT away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.78 yellow cards, 0.44 red cards and 3.22 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 88.9%, 77.8%, 55.6%, 44.4% and 22.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 44.4%. Season card data is available for 22 of 22 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between FBC Melgar and ADT ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 10 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.78 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.3 total corners. The match recorded 10 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 98%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 87%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FBC Melgar at home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.88 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.13 total cards per match. In this game, FBC Melgar received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.13 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 37.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 25%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for ADT away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.78 yellow cards, 0.44 red cards and 3.22 total cards per match. In this game, ADT received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.22 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 55.6% of matches, 5+ in 22.2%, and a red card in 44.4%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported FBC Melgar at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.75 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 15 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.