Match context

The upcoming match between Universitario and Comerciantes Unidos is scheduled for 06.09.2026 01:30 in Primera División. The listed venue is Estadio Monumental, Lima. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Universitario are in position 2 with 13 points after 20 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 28 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDLW. Comerciantes Unidos are in position 11 with 8 points after 20 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLWL.

Recent results

Universitario recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWDLWWWDL. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Comerciantes Unidos recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLWLDDDLL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Universitario recorded 7 wins, there were 3 draws, and Comerciantes Unidos recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Universitario to win with 68% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.92%, 20.53% and 11.55%. The model momentum difference is 56.38 points in favour of Universitario. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.62%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Universitario +0.25 / Comerciantes Unidos -0.25 supports Comerciantes Unidos by an average 2.78 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Universitario at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 1.70 yellow cards, 0.20 red cards and 1.90 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 90.0%, 60.0%, 40.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 21 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Comerciantes Unidos away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.80 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 2.90 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 90.0%, 70.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 22 of 22 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Universitario and Comerciantes Unidos ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.8 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Universitario at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 1.7 yellow cards, 0.2 red cards and 1.9 total cards per match. In this game, Universitario received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 20%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Comerciantes Unidos away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.8 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 2.9 total cards per match. In this game, Comerciantes Unidos received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.9 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 10%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Comerciantes Unidos at -0.25. The stored market movement was 2.78 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-2, the line settled as a half loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.