Match context

The upcoming match between Union Magdalena and Barranquilla is scheduled for 05.09.2026 22:00 in Primera B. The listed venue is Estadio Sierra Nevada, Santa Marta. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Union Magdalena are in position 16 with 1 points after 23 matches. The season record is 12 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 35 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDL. Barranquilla are in position 15 with 2 points after 23 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 28 scored and 29 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDDL.

Recent results

Union Magdalena recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLDLDDWL. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. Barranquilla recorded 1 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDDDLDLDD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Union Magdalena recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and Barranquilla recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Union Magdalena to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 62.28%, 23.35% and 14.37%. The model momentum difference is 47.90 points in favour of Union Magdalena. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.50 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.59%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Union Magdalena at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.25 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 25 completed matches (40.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Barranquilla away from home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.40 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.40 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 60.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 24 completed matches (41.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Union Magdalena and Barranquilla ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.1 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Union Magdalena at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.25 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. In this game, Union Magdalena received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.25 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Barranquilla away from home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2.4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.4 total cards per match. In this game, Barranquilla received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.6 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 60% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.