Match context

The upcoming match between Envigado and Leones FC is scheduled for 12.09.2026 20:30 in Primera B. The listed venue is Estadio Polideportivo Sur, Envigado. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Envigado are in position 4 with 29 points after 25 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 36 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLWW. Leones FC are in position 14 with 10 points after 18 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 11 scored and 25 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLLL.

Recent results

Envigado recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLDLWLDW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Leones FC recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDWDWDDW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Envigado recorded 1 wins, there were 4 draws, and Leones FC recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Envigado or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.62%, 25.80% and 18.58%. The model momentum difference is 37.04 points in favour of Envigado. The input data quality score is 89/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.74%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Envigado at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.83 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 83.3%, 66.7%, 33.3% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 14 of 28 completed matches (50.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Leones FC away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 50.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 6 of 19 completed matches (31.6% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Envigado and Leones FC ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.8 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Envigado at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.83 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Envigado received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 16.7%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Leones FC away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Leones FC received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.