Match context

The upcoming match between Millonarios and Deportivo Pasto is scheduled for 05.08.2026 01:20 in Primera A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Millonarios are in position 17 with 0 points after 21 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 24 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDWLD. Deportivo Pasto are in position 13 with 0 points after 23 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLL.

Recent results

Millonarios recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLWLDDWW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Deportivo Pasto recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLLLLLWW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Millonarios recorded 6 wins, there were 3 draws, and Deportivo Pasto recorded 1 wins. The average total was 1.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Millonarios to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.74%, 24.78% and 14.48%. The model momentum difference is 46.26 points in favour of Millonarios. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.55 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.85%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Millonarios -0.5 / Deportivo Pasto +0.5 supports Deportivo Pasto by an average 1.24 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Millonarios and Deportivo Pasto ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.8 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Deportivo Pasto at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.24 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.