Match context

The upcoming match between Deportes Tolima and Cucuta is scheduled for 01.09.2026 01:05 in Primera A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Deportes Tolima are in position 3 with 10 points after 26 matches. The season record is 12 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 37 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLWW. Cucuta are in position 7 with 8 points after 21 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 8 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 41 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDLD.

Recent results

Deportes Tolima recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLWLWLWWD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Cucuta recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDLDLLDDD. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Deportes Tolima recorded 4 wins, there were 1 draws, and Cucuta recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.43 goals per match. Both teams scored in 28.6% of those matches, while 57.1% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Deportes Tolima to win with 69% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 68.81%, 20.80% and 10.40%. The model momentum difference is 58.41 points in favour of Deportes Tolima. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.36 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.42%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

4 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 75/100, 74.78% bucket win rate across 579 observations). At least one goal in the match (quota 13, score 78/100, 77.81% group success rate across 3231 observations). Goals Over/Under — Under 3.5 (odds 1.40, score 91/100, 85% bucket win rate across 20 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Deportes Tolima at home is based on 13 matches. The team averages 2.23 yellow cards, 0.31 red cards and 2.54 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 84.6%, 76.9%, 38.5%, 30.8% and 15.4% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 30.8%. Season card data is available for 23 of 23 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Cucuta away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.36 yellow cards, 0.18 red cards and 2.55 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 81.8%, 45.5%, 45.5%, 27.3% and 27.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 18.2%. Season card data is available for 22 of 23 completed matches (95.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Deportes Tolima and Cucuta ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.43 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 71.4%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 57.1%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Deportes Tolima at home was based on 13 matches, with averages of 2.23 yellow cards, 0.31 red cards and 2.54 total cards per match. In this game, Deportes Tolima received 5 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 6 in total. That was 3.46 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 38.5% of matches, 5+ in 15.4%, and a red card in 30.8%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Cucuta away from home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 2.36 yellow cards, 0.18 red cards and 2.55 total cards per match. In this game, Cucuta received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.55 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 45.5% of matches, 5+ in 27.3%, and a red card in 18.2%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 13. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.