Match context

The upcoming match between Santa Fe and Fortaleza FC is scheduled for 05.09.2026 23:25 in Primera A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Santa Fe are in position 9 with 9 points after 25 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 11 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 38 scored and 29 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDWD. Fortaleza FC are in position 14 with 6 points after 22 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 31 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLWL.

Recent results

Santa Fe recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDDDWWDWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Fortaleza FC recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLWLDDDDL. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and Fortaleza FC recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.67 goals per match. Both teams scored in 44.4% of those matches, while 44.4% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 40%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 96%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Santa Fe or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.30%, 26.26% and 16.44%. The model momentum difference is 40.86 points in favour of Santa Fe. The input data quality score is 93/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.41%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Santa Fe -0.25 / Fortaleza FC +0.25 supports Fortaleza FC by an average 1.15 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Santa Fe at home is based on 13 matches. The team averages 2.31 yellow cards, 0.15 red cards and 2.46 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 84.6%, 38.5%, 15.4% and 7.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 15.4%. Season card data is available for 24 of 24 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Fortaleza FC away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.80 yellow cards, 0.20 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 40.0%, 40.0% and 10.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 21 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Santa Fe and Fortaleza FC ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 7 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.67 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.1 total corners. The match recorded 7 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 96%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Santa Fe at home was based on 13 matches, with averages of 2.31 yellow cards, 0.15 red cards and 2.46 total cards per match. In this game, Santa Fe received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.46 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 38.5% of matches, 5+ in 7.7%, and a red card in 15.4%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Fortaleza FC away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.8 yellow cards, 0.2 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Fortaleza FC received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. The total was effectively equal to the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 10%, and a red card in 20%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Fortaleza FC at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.15 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-2, the line settled as a half win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 12 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.