Match context

The upcoming match between Atletico Nacional and Rionegro Aguilas is scheduled for 13.09.2026 21:05 in Primera A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Atletico Nacional are in position 6 with 12 points after 5 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 12 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWLW. Rionegro Aguilas are in position 9 with 10 points after 6 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 10 scored and 8 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDDDW.

Recent results

Atletico Nacional recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLWWWWL. The averages are 2 goals scored and 0.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Rionegro Aguilas recorded 3 wins, 7 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDDDWWDDWD. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Atletico Nacional recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and Rionegro Aguilas recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.70; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Atletico Nacional to win with 68% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.61%, 20.73% and 11.66%. The model momentum difference is 55.94 points in favour of Atletico Nacional. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.38 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.70%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

A current confirmed reversal signal is stored for Home -1.25. It is a market indicator rather than a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Atletico Nacional at home is based on 13 matches. The team averages 2.38 yellow cards, 0.15 red cards and 2.54 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 92.3%, 76.9%, 46.2%, 23.1% and 7.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 15.4%. Season card data is available for 30 of 30 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Rionegro Aguilas away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.27 yellow cards, 0.27 red cards and 2.55 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 90.9%, 54.5%, 9.1% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 27.3%. Season card data is available for 25 of 25 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Atletico Nacional and Rionegro Aguilas ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 10 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.7 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.7 total corners. The match recorded 10 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Atletico Nacional at home was based on 13 matches, with averages of 2.38 yellow cards, 0.15 red cards and 2.54 total cards per match. In this game, Atletico Nacional received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.54 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 46.2% of matches, 5+ in 7.7%, and a red card in 15.4%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Rionegro Aguilas away from home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 2.27 yellow cards, 0.27 red cards and 2.55 total cards per match. In this game, Rionegro Aguilas received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.55 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 54.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 27.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Atletico Nacional at -1.25. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.