Match context

The upcoming match between AS Roma and Fiorentina is scheduled for 24.08.2026 18:45 in Serie A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

AS Roma recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWLDWWWWW. The averages are 2.30 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Fiorentina recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDDWLWWDWD. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, AS Roma recorded 5 wins, there were 2 draws, and Fiorentina recorded 3 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as AS Roma or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.36%, 23.63% and 18.01%. The model momentum difference is 40.35 points in favour of AS Roma. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.07%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair AS Roma 0 / Fiorentina 0 supports Fiorentina by an average 1.81 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 15 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between AS Roma and Fiorentina ended 4-0. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Fiorentina at 0. The stored market movement was 1.81 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.