Match context

The upcoming match between AC Milan and Venezia is scheduled for 28.08.2026 18:45 in Serie A. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

AC Milan recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLDDLWLLD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Venezia recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDLWWWWDW. The averages are 2.90 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, AC Milan recorded 4 wins, there were 0 draws, and Venezia recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.75 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 99%; over 9.5 corners — 88%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as AC Milan to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 64.24%, 21.13% and 14.63%. The model momentum difference is 49.62 points in favour of AC Milan. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.92%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair AC Milan 0 / Venezia 0 supports Venezia by an average 3.32 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

What happened in the match

The match between AC Milan and Venezia ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 4 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.75 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.4 total corners. The match recorded 4 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 99%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 88%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Venezia at 0. The stored market movement was 3.32 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 10 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.