Match context

The upcoming match between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Freiburg is scheduled for 23.08.2026 16:00 in DFB Pokal. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Fortuna Düsseldorf recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLWWWLW. The averages are 2.90 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. SC Freiburg recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLWLWDL. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf recorded 3 wins, there were 2 draws, and SC Freiburg recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.22 goals per match. Both teams scored in 55.6% of those matches, while 44.4% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.80; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 93%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as SC Freiburg to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 11.61%, 18.57% and 69.82%. The model momentum difference is 58.21 points in favour of SC Freiburg. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.14%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Fortuna Düsseldorf 0 / SC Freiburg 0 supports SC Freiburg by an average 2.04 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.70).

What happened in the match

The match between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Freiburg ended 1-5. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 9 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.22 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.8 total corners. The match recorded 9 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 93%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported SC Freiburg at 0. The stored market movement was 2.04 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-5, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.7. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 15 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.