Match context

The upcoming match between Phönix Lübeck and SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled for 23.08.2026 16:00 in DFB Pokal. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Recent results

Phönix Lübeck recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLDLLDWW. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. SC Paderborn 07 recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWDWDLLDW. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as SC Paderborn 07 to win with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 6.24%, 11.69% and 82.07%. The model momentum difference is 75.83 points in favour of SC Paderborn 07. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.44%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 41, score 89/100, 88.51% group success rate across 87 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Phönix Lübeck and SC Paderborn 07 ended 2-4. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 41. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.