Match context

The upcoming match between Puebla and Guadalajara Chivas is scheduled for 01.08.2026 01:00 in Liga MX. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Puebla are in position 10 with 3 points after 2 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is LW. Guadalajara Chivas are in position 11 with 3 points after 2 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is WL.

Recent results

Puebla recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLLLLDDL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Guadalajara Chivas recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDLDWLDDW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Puebla recorded 3 wins, there were 1 draws, and Guadalajara Chivas recorded 6 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Guadalajara Chivas to win with 60% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.00%, 21.82% and 60.18%. The model momentum difference is 42.18 points in favour of Guadalajara Chivas. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.57 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.51%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Puebla 0 / Guadalajara Chivas 0 supports Guadalajara Chivas by an average 2.95 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 8 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

3 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.70). Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 79/100, 79.09% bucket win rate across 220 observations).

What happened in the match

The match between Puebla and Guadalajara Chivas ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Guadalajara Chivas at 0. The stored market movement was 2.95 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.7. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.