Match context

The upcoming match between Pachuca and Puebla is scheduled for 18.08.2026 03:06 in Liga MX. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Pachuca are in position 6 with 3 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is LW. Puebla are in position 10 with 3 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is LW.

Recent results

Pachuca recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLLWLWWW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Puebla recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDLWWLLL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Pachuca recorded 7 wins, there were 3 draws, and Puebla recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 90% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Pachuca to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 63.64%, 22.73% and 13.64%. The model momentum difference is 50.00 points in favour of Pachuca. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.50 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.55%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Pachuca at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Puebla away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 3 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Pachuca and Puebla ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.7 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Pachuca at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Pachuca received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Puebla away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Puebla received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.