Match context

The upcoming match between Guadalajara Chivas and Club Tijuana is scheduled for 22.08.2026 23:07 in Liga MX. The listed venue is Estadio AKRON, Zapopan. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Guadalajara Chivas are in position 11 with 3 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WL. Club Tijuana are in position 1 with 6 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is WW.

Recent results

Guadalajara Chivas recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLDDWLDLD. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Club Tijuana recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLDWWWDW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara Chivas recorded 5 wins, there were 4 draws, and Club Tijuana recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 30%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 11.20; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Guadalajara Chivas to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 63.71%, 21.78% and 14.51%. The model momentum difference is 49.21 points in favour of Guadalajara Chivas. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.70%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Guadalajara Chivas at home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 1.50 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 50.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Club Tijuana away from home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Guadalajara Chivas and Club Tijuana ended 5-2. The game produced 7 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.7 goals, while this match produced 7. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Guadalajara Chivas at home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 1.5 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Guadalajara Chivas received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 50%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Club Tijuana away from home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Club Tijuana received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.