Match context

The upcoming match between Guadalajara Chivas and U.N.A.M. - Pumas is scheduled for 14.09.2026 01:07 in Liga MX. The listed venue is Estadio AKRON, Zapopan. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Guadalajara Chivas are in position 4 with 14 points after 7 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 12 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWWD. U.N.A.M. - Pumas are in position 10 with 11 points after 7 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 11 scored and 9 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDDW.

Recent results

Guadalajara Chivas recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWWLDDWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. U.N.A.M. - Pumas recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDDDLLWWL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara Chivas recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and U.N.A.M. - Pumas recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Guadalajara Chivas to win with 62% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.75%, 21.82% and 16.43%. The model momentum difference is 45.32 points in favour of Guadalajara Chivas. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.53 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.52%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 81/100, 80.79% bucket win rate across 609 observations). At least one goal in the match (quota 15, score 80/100, 80.06% group success rate across 3190 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Guadalajara Chivas at home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 66.7%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 7 of 7 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for U.N.A.M. - Pumas away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.00 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 7 of 7 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Guadalajara Chivas and U.N.A.M. - Pumas ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.4 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Guadalajara Chivas at home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, Guadalajara Chivas received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 66.7% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 33.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for U.N.A.M. - Pumas away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. In this game, U.N.A.M. - Pumas received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.67 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 33.3%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 15. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.