Match context

The upcoming match between Ludogorets and Botev Vratsa is scheduled for 02.08.2026 16:00 in First League. The listed venue is Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Ludogorets are in position 1 with 6 points after 2 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 0 conceded. The stored form sequence is WW. Botev Vratsa are in position 9 with 1 points after 2 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is LD.

Recent results

Ludogorets recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWWLDWDW. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Botev Vratsa recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWDWDWWWD. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Ludogorets recorded 10 wins, there were 0 draws, and Botev Vratsa recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Ludogorets to win with 68% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 67.82%, 19.70% and 12.48%. The model momentum difference is 55.34 points in favour of Ludogorets. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.38 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.41%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Ludogorets +0.25 / Botev Vratsa -0.25 supports Botev Vratsa by an average 1.30 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Ludogorets and Botev Vratsa ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.5 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Botev Vratsa at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.3 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.