Match context

The upcoming match between Botev Plovdiv and Spartak Varna is scheduled for 10.08.2026 18:15 in First League. The listed venue is Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Botev Plovdiv are in position 6 with 4 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 4 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLD. Spartak Varna are in position 3 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 2 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWD.

Recent results

Botev Plovdiv recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDWWLWWLW. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Spartak Varna recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWDLDWWL. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Botev Plovdiv recorded 6 wins, there were 0 draws, and Spartak Varna recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Botev Plovdiv to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.07%, 23.36% and 15.57%. The model momentum difference is 45.50 points in favour of Botev Plovdiv. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.53 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.56%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2). Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

What happened in the match

The match between Botev Plovdiv and Spartak Varna ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.7 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.