Match context

The upcoming match between Cherno More Varna and Ludogorets is scheduled for 09.08.2026 16:00 in First League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Cherno More Varna are in position 13 with 1 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLD. Ludogorets are in position 2 with 9 points after 3 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 1 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWW.

Recent results

Cherno More Varna recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDDDWWDWL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ludogorets recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLWWLDWD. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Cherno More Varna recorded 3 wins, there were 4 draws, and Ludogorets recorded 3 wins. The average total was 1.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.43; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 99%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Ludogorets (X2) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.80%, 26.86% and 54.34%. The model momentum difference is 35.54 points in favour of Ludogorets. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.00%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Cherno More Varna -0.25 / Ludogorets +0.25 supports Ludogorets by an average 1.25 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 16 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Cherno More Varna and Ludogorets ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.6 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Ludogorets at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.25 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-3, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.