Match context

The upcoming match between Septemvri Sofia and CSKA Sofia is scheduled for 09.08.2026 18:15 in First League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Septemvri Sofia are in position 12 with 1 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 2 scored and 6 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLD. CSKA Sofia are in position 5 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 5 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWD.

Recent results

Septemvri Sofia recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDWLWWWDW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. CSKA Sofia recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDWDDWWWL. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Septemvri Sofia recorded 2 wins, there were 0 draws, and CSKA Sofia recorded 8 wins. The average total was 2.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.64; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 91%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as CSKA Sofia to win with 66% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 11.71%, 22.31% and 65.98%. The model momentum difference is 54.27 points in favour of CSKA Sofia. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.31%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Septemvri Sofia 0 / CSKA Sofia 0 supports CSKA Sofia by an average 1.58 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 16 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

What happened in the match

The match between Septemvri Sofia and CSKA Sofia ended 0-3. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.1 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported CSKA Sofia at 0. The stored market movement was 1.58 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-3, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.