Match context

The upcoming match between Arda Kardzhali and Lokomotiv Sofia is scheduled for 17.08.2026 18:15 in First League. The listed venue is Arena Arda, Kardzhali. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Arda Kardzhali are in position 6 with 7 points after 3 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 3 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWD. Lokomotiv Sofia are in position 10 with 2 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 3 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLD.

Recent results

Arda Kardzhali recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWDLDLWLW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Lokomotiv Sofia recorded 1 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLDDDLWDD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Arda Kardzhali recorded 6 wins, there were 3 draws, and Lokomotiv Sofia recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Arda Kardzhali or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 53.92%, 26.21% and 19.87%. The model momentum difference is 34.06 points in favour of Arda Kardzhali. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.44%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Arda Kardzhali at home is based on 1 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 3 of 4 completed matches (75.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Lokomotiv Sofia away from home is based on 2 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 4 of 4 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Arda Kardzhali and Lokomotiv Sofia ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Arda Kardzhali at home was based on 1 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Arda Kardzhali received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Lokomotiv Sofia away from home was based on 2 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Lokomotiv Sofia received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 8 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.