Match context

The upcoming match between CSKA 1948 and Cherno More Varna is scheduled for 14.08.2026 18:15 in First League. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
CSKA 1948 are in position 4 with 10 points after 3 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses. The goals record is 6 scored and 4 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWD. Cherno More Varna are in position 12 with 1 points after 3 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 1 scored and 5 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLD.

Recent results

CSKA 1948 recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDWDWDDWW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Cherno More Varna recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLDDDWWDW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, CSKA 1948 recorded 0 wins, there were 5 draws, and Cherno More Varna recorded 5 wins. The average total was 1.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.40; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 99%; over 9.5 corners — 88%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as CSKA 1948 or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 51.55%, 28.59% and 19.86%. The model momentum difference is 31.69 points in favour of CSKA 1948. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.24%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair CSKA 1948 -0.75 / Cherno More Varna +0.75 supports Cherno More Varna by an average 1.25 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 9 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

What happened in the match

The match between CSKA 1948 and Cherno More Varna ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.9 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Cherno More Varna at +0.75. The stored market movement was 1.25 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.